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☆ Oil climbs, markets on edge over darkening growth outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P 500 futures were 0.2% higher and currency markets were broadly steady. The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate." Elsewhere markets were already on edge about a darkening growth outlook, as China's post-pandemic recovery stalls and global interest rates remain high, and traders were unwilling to take any new positions on the basis of Russian events.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Jorge Leon, Antony Blinken, Ray Attrill, Masato Kanda, Stephen Coates Organizations: Brent, Rystad Energy, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Rostov, Moscow, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Sydney, Asia, China, steadied

☆ Oil up, stocks dip after short-lived Russian mutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, June 26 (Reuters) - Oil nudged higher in early trade on Monday as an abortive weekend mutiny by Russian mercenaries raised questions about crude supply, though other financial markets started steadily with investors unsure of any further immediate implications. Russian mercenaries made a short-lived rebellion on Saturday, seizing the southern city of Rostov and advancing on Moscow demanding the removal of Russian military commanders in charge of the war in Ukraine. The private Wagner army then withdrew after striking a deal guaranteeing their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. The consequences for the Ukraine war were not clear, though the challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority was the starkest in decades of his leadership. "As such, we are likely to see a marginal uptick in oil prices in the coming days, if the situation does not deteriorate."

☆ Asian stocks pause rally, eyeing China stimulus, Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat after Wall Street's bullish run met resistance on Friday. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded due to the Juneteenth holiday, while futures were largely steady. The People's Bank of China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week. Several major banks last week cut their growth forecasts for China after the recent disappointing data. U.S. crude futures fell 1.0% to 71.03 per barrel, and Brent crude was down 1.3% at $75.63 per barrel.

Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, bullish, HSI, Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, POWELL, Powell, Ray Attrill, Brent, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue Organizations: Nikkei, . Federal, Nasdaq, Cash U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan's, U.S ., People's Bank of, National Australia Bank, The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Japan, People's Bank of China, .

☆ Dollar steady as traders consider Fed, global rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The increased expectations that U.S. and global interest rates may have further to rise has come on the back of surprise rate increases by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week. The Canadian dollar was last steady at C$1.3365 to the greenback, after rising to a one-month top of C$1.3321 in the previous session. The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly to 104.02, though strayed not too far from an over two-month high hit last week, on the back of higher Treasury yields. Money markets are pricing in a 29% chance that the Fed raises rates by 25bps at its policy meeting next week. "Markets have raised their FOMC rate hike expectations following a surprise Bank of Canada rate hike," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Persons: Edward Moya, Carol Kong, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, BoC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Wednesday, Canadian, U.S, European Central Bank, 25bps, of Canada, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Locations: Chicago, Asia

☆ Dollar sags as Fed bets ebb, debt bill passes; Aussie soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage stoked bets for the central bank to raise rates again next week. A day earlier, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson had said that "skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming." "Maybe they hike in June, maybe in July, or maybe they don't hike any more." Money markets currently see about 29% odds of a hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. Traders currently lay about one-third odds on a quarter-point rate hike on Tuesday.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson, Shinichiro Kadota, Christine Lagarde, Joe Biden, Monday's, Ray Attrill, NAB's, Kevin Buckland, Sam Holmes Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Australian, Philadelphia Fed, Barclay, European Central Bank, National Australia Bank, Traders, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Tokyo

☆ Fed 'skip' chatter triggers dollar's biggest weekly fall since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar surged after an increase in the minimum wage there stoked bets for another raise in rates next week. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, has dropped nearly 0.8% this week, its biggest weekly loss since mid-January. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday "it's time to at least hit the stop button for one meeting and see how it goes", referring to the June 13-14 Fed meeting. Money markets are pricing in a roughly 29% chance of a June hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week. Even if a hike doesn't happen next week, markets expect one by autumn.

Persons: Fiona Cincotta, let's, Patrick Harker, Philip Jefferson, Guy Miller, Christine Lagarde, Joe Biden, Monday's, Ray Attrill, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Mark Heinrich, Mark Potter, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, City Index, Philadelphia Fed, Reuters, Zurich Insurance, European Central Bank, U.S . Senate, National Australia Bank, NAB, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, City, April's, London, Tokyo

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Asian markets were trading higher when the bill cleared the house and held their gains. Treasury yields rose marginally. The bill would suspend the federal government's borrowing limit until 2025, allowing the Treasury to sell debt to pay its obligations. Two-year Treasury yields rose 2.7 basis points to 4.417%, while currency markets were broadly steady. Debt ceiling concerns periodically weighed on stock markets over the last week, although most investors expected an 11th-hour agreement.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

LONDON/TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Global shares rose on Thursday amid receding bets for a U.S. rate hike this month and relief over the passage through the U.S. House of Representatives of a bill to suspend the federal debt ceiling. The Euro STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.8% after closing at a two-month low in the previous session. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, added 0.2%. Also bolstering the mood were U.S. Federal Reserve officials including governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson pointing to a rate hike "skip" at the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. However, shortly after, the Fed's Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision.

Persons: Joe Biden, Ray Attrill, Philip Jefferson, Sandrine Perret, Jefferson, Patrick Harker, It's, it's, Tony Sycamore, Tom Wilson, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore, Lincoln, Emelia Organizations: U.S . House, Republicans, National Australia Bank, Federal, Fed, Philadelphia Fed, IG Markets, Treasury, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Unigestion, Asia, London, Tokyo

☆ Asia stocks gain as Fed hike bets recede, debt vote eases nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO, June 1 (Reuters) - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets rose on Thursday amid receding bets for a U.S. rate hike this month and relief over the passage of the U.S. debt ceiling bill through the House. Treasury yields rose slightly from nearly two-week lows. ""What this does is it turns the attention to the incoming data and the Fed meeting this month," Attrill added. However, shortly after, the Fed's Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also said on Wednesday that for now he is inclined to support a "skip" in rate hikes.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Hong, HSI, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Republicans, National Australia Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Tokyo

☆ Investors relieved after US House votes to suspend debt ceiling; focus turns to Senate
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Joe Biden's, Ray Attrill, Biden, Brad McMillan, Jarrod Kerr, Caroline Valetkevitch, Kevin Buckland, Rae Wee, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio, Lincoln Organizations: Investors, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, National Australia Bank, Treasury, White, Commonwealth Financial Network, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Dollar nudges lower as U.S. debt ceiling deal dents safe-haven appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Dollar edges down following U.S. debt ceiling dealRisk currencies rallyTurkish lira touches new record lowLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar nudged lower on Monday, pulling back from six-month peaks against the yen as a U.S. debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite across world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal. Having briefly touched a six-month high of 140.91 yen during Asia trade, the dollar drifted lower and was last down 0.25% at 140.25 yen. "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." Talk that the U.S. rate hiking cycle may not be over as soon as hoped given signs of economic strength have bolstered the dollar this month and could support the currency even as U.S. debt ceiling worries abate.

☆ Dollar steady on mounting Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Monday supported by growing expectations of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, though news that a debt ceiling deal had been finalised drew some of the safe haven bids away from the greenback. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had on Friday said the government would default if Congress did not increase the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by June 5, having previously said a default could happen as early as June 1.

☆ Dollar elevated as sticky inflation cements Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal lifts optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen's renewed decline has come on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as bets grow that interest rates in the United States would stay higher for longer. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded in Asia on Monday, owing to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, while futures were broadly steady. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date."

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal hopes rekindle hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The euro fell to a more than seven-week low of $1.0760, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% to 103.57, flirting with Thursday's two-month high of 103.63. "It does remove one obstacle to the Fed continuing to raise rates." U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2510%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.6402%.

☆ Dollar buoyed by hawkish Fed expectations as debt deal eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed near a six-month peak against the yen on Friday on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as optimism over debt ceiling talks in Washington raised expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. The news helped calm fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic American debt default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The dollar stayed elevated in early Asia trade on Friday and last bought 138.40 yen , having risen to a near six-month high of 138.75 yen in the previous session. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2581%, edging away from a low of 3.964% at the start of the week.

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro, Aussie jumps as central banks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan continued to reverberate days after the decision. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationMeanwhile, the Aussie dollar leapt to a one-week high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate hike and signalled more tightening may come. The central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and said “some further” tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is widely expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting the following day, with a 50 basis-point increase on the table.

☆ Dollar dips as job openings fall, Fed meeting in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar fell Tuesday after data showed that U.S. job openings fell in March, a day before the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by an additional 25 basis points. The dollar index fell 0.22% to 101.93 after earlier reaching 102.40, the highest since April 11. The single currency has risen since mid-March on expectations that the interest rate differential with the U.S. dollar will continue to shrink. The Aussie dollar rose 0.51% to $0.6664, after earlier getting to $0.6717, the highest since April 21. The dollar fell 0.56% to 136.67 yen, after earlier hitting 137.78, the highest since March 8.

☆ Dollar edges lower; on track for second straight monthly loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar dipped against most major currencies in early Asia trade, with the euro and sterling rising 0.05% to $1.0994 and 0.02% to $1.2447, respectively. "There's nothing, as yet, to hang your hat on rate cuts in the second half of the year." Elsewhere, the kiwi gained 0.07% to $0.6143, while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.02% to 101.66. The index was eyeing a monthly loss of close to 0.9%, having fallen more than 2% in March. In Asia, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting this week takes centre stage, as it marks the first meeting to be chaired by new BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - Data showing British inflation stayed above 10% in March meant the pound climbed against the dollar while other currencies dipped, with the greenback underpinned by a tick-up in U.S. yields. Sterling was last 0.25% higher at $1.2454, heading back to last week's 10-month high, after data showed British consumer price inflation eased by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%. However, he added: "With the Fed expected to hike in May and the ECB to hike by more over the coming months, the positive impetus from this data for the pound will likely be contained." Expectations for higher official rates in a market relative to those elsewhere typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting cash into a country while boosting its currency. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round."

☆ Dollar regains footing as yields rise, Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which gauges the greenback against six major peers, ticked up 0.09% to 101.81 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. The dollar-yen pair, which tends to track U.S. yields, added 0.19% to 134.35 yen per dollar , recovering from a 0.29% retreat on Tuesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The dollar index last year culminated a breathless 16-month surge by hitting a two-decade high of 114.78 at the end of September, which was followed by a steep, steady retreat until the start of February. However, bank earnings from recent days have proved robust overall, and bond yields have recovered strongly from multi-month lows reached last month.

☆ Dollar regains footing amid higher yields as Fed outlook weighed
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday after it seesawed with bond market volatility as investors scrutinized U.S. economic indicators, Federal Reserve commentary and corporate earnings for clues about the path for interest rates. The dollar index — which gauges the greenback against six major peers — ticked up 0.11% to 101.83 in Asian trading, following a 0.36% slide on Tuesday that reversed the 0.54% rally of the session before. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , which are extremely sensitive to Fed expectations, reached an almost one-month high of 4.231% overnight, and remained elevated in Tokyo trading on Wednesday. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round." The Aussie eased 0.06% to $0.67245 on Wednesday, following a 0.41% rally in the prior session.

☆ Dollar set for longest stretch of weekly losses since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, slid to a roughly one-year low of 100.78. This would mark a fifth straight weekly loss, the longest such stretch since July 2020. Out of the G10 currencies, investors hold the largest bearish position in the dollar against the euro. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.1% to $0.63035, after jumping 1.3% on Thursday. The Japanese yen rose marginally, leaving the dollar 0.2% down on the day at 132.27, while the offshore yuan rose 0.4% to 6.8463 per dollar.

☆ Dollar sinks to one-year low as cooling inflation raises Fed pause expectation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Dollar banknotes are seen through a printed stock graph in this illustration taken February 7, 2018. The greenback took another leg down on Friday and the U.S dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slid to a roughly one-year low of 100.78. Meanwhile, the euro rose to a fresh one-year top of $1.1075, pushing past its previous high from Thursday. The New Zealand dollar similarly gained 0.19% to $0.6309, after jumping 1.3% on Thursday. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's yen rose marginally to 132.47 per dollar, while the offshore yuan gained more than 0.5% to 6.8327 per dollar.

☆ Dollar slides to one-year low as cooling inflation raises Fed pause expectation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In this photo illustration, 100 U.S. dollar notes and 100 yuan notes are displayed. The greenback took another leg down on Friday and the U.S dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, tumbled to a roughly one-year low of 100.78. Meanwhile, the euro rose to a fresh one-year top of $1.1075, pushing past Thursday's previous high. The New Zealand dollar similarly gained 0.21% to $0.6310, after jumping 1.3% on Thursday. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's yen rose more than 0.1% to 132.39 per dollar, while the offshore yuan gained 0.3% to 6.8495 per dollar.

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